President Jean-Claude Juncker in his State of the European Union address on 14 September in Strasbourg place limits for the negotiations on the withdrawal of Britain from the EU.
Its central issue will be that of the four fundamental freedoms - for persons, goods, services and capital – which from an EU perspective are non-negotiable. The target of the British access to the European single market, according to information obtained by SPIEGEL, will only be achieved by the United Kingdom if they also accept the free movement of workers.
Juncker, European Parliament President Martin Schulz, (SPD) and the leader of the European People's Party, Manfred Weber (CSU) agreed this last Tuesday at a meeting in Brussels. The European Parliament will reaffirm Junckers course with a resolution.
Schulz gave an unhappy response to a proposal of the European think tank Bruegel, which was supported by the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, the CDU politician Norbert Röttgen. It provides for the free movement of goods, services and capital, without the British in return having to accept the full free movement of workers.
"There's no need to deviate from our negotiating line to the British," says Schulz. "In the four fundamental freedoms, there is no discount. Nothing else will find a majority in the European Parliament." Parliament must approve the outcome of negotiations. The influx of EU foreigners to the UK was a crucial point for the success of the Brexit advocates in the referendum on 23 June.
Brexit as a "major risk factor" for the German economy
The Federal Government also views sceptically the proposal of the European think tanks. Foreign Office and Ministry of Finance insist that access to the internal market can only be obtained by those who adhere to the four fundamental freedoms.
Meanwhile there are fears in the Federal Ministry of Finance, that the withdrawal of Britain from the EU grows into a serious threat to the recovery in Germany. The uncertainty associated with the outcome of the referendum count "is among the main external risk factors for economic development," it says to SPIEGEL information in an internal memo of the BMF.
As pressures on the economy, the officials of the Federal Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) also see lower growth in emerging markets and higher interest rates in the US. The turnaround in interest rates there "could lead to withdrawal of capital in emerging markets". Nevertheless, experts also see opportunities for better economic development. "As a stimulant, the measures envisaged could lead both to increasing investments in Germany but also a stronger recovery in Europe " they write.
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