Theresa May pleade for help with the Brexit negotiations this week in Berlin, Paris and Brussels. The Europeans remained hard. But she was trying to be nice.
Half a year ago Theresa May was at the height of her power. She had chosen "hard brexit", praised "global Britain", initiated the withdrawal from the European Union and even called for new elections. May wanted even more power. When Jean-Claude Juncker sat at her table in Downing Street and poured water into the wine, she switched to "pass-by mode". No bad news, please! She lives in another galaxy, the President of the Commission said.
Earlier this week, May and Juncker met again for dinner, this time in Brussels. But now everything was quite different. May did not give up, she begged for help. She talked about the risk she had taken when she recently gave up the hard Brexit course and asked for a transitional period of two years, in which everything is going to be the same. She recalled that she had also moved onto the delicate issue of finances. And she let them see that her friends and her enemies were sitting on the back of her neck, waiting for her to fall. She said she had no room for manoeuvre, said May and that the Europeans would have to make give her some.
Theresa May seemed anxious to the President of the Commission, despondent and discouraged. A woman who trusts hardly anybody but is not ready for an act of liberation. May's facial expressions and their appearance were volumes. Thus Juncker later described it to his colleagues. Everyone can see this: The Prime Minister is drawn from the struggle with her own party. Under her eyes she wears deep rings. She looks like someone who does not sleep for the night. You can see her laughing only rarely, as clearly, for the photographers it must be. But she looks tormented. Previously, May could literally pour out laughter, her whole body then vibrated. Now she needs the utmost force to avoid losing her temper.
At the last minute, May asked Juncker for the appointment. Before that, she telephoned Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron. "Charm offensive" is an often used term but that does not fit here. They were calls for help. May knew that the heads of state and government were not ready to certify "sufficient progress" in the negotiations at the end of the week. This blocked the way to the second phase of the negotiations, which should take place in the future. The Prime Minister wanted at least to pave the way for a move: could the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier not be given a mandate for talks about the transitional phase after the departure?
EU wants to talk about money
For May this would have been a great success. It would have softened the strict negotiating plan. And it could have soothed the entrepreneurs on the island. For they become more nervous with every day, which is moving nearer to a chaotic, uncontrolled exit. Several banks have already begun to execute their emergency plans, hire offices in Frankfurt or Paris, relocate business units. Others are preparing for it. In business, no one can rely on hope or desire. And as a rule of thumb: jobs and production sites, which are once gone, no longer return. Moving twice is not worth it.
Europeans are only aware of the needs of the British - they are their biggest leverage in the negotiations. That is why Merkel, Macron and Juncker could not be softened. All three insisted on further progress, especially on the sensitive issue of money, before there could be direct talks about the future. Brexit was not wanted and they could not solve the problems of the British for them, they said dryly in the chancellor's office. In Paris and Brussels, May received nothing else. The Europeans had decided.
Nevertheless, it should not and cannot be seen as if they let the Prime Minister off the hook. Merkel, Macron and Juncker know exactly how fragile her situation is. At the same time, they recognize that May is no longer under illusions about the effects of Brexit. her initial threat that "no deal is better than a bad deal" does not play any role in the negotiations at all. Macron has publicly pointed out this and in Berlin this is confirmed. With her Florentine speech May has already taken another course. She acknowledged how bad it would be for the British economy if the country were catapulted from one day to the other out of the internal market. Very different Boris Johnson, her Foreign Minister: He still talks to the people that they have a "great future", even without a deal. Better to negotiate with a realistic May than with the dream dancer Johnson, is thus the calculus on the continent. That was why her defeat had to be attractively packaged.
Juncker said good-bye to her after supper. He can do it like no other.
In the communiqué, a "constructive and friendly atmosphere" was mentioned. Yes, the efforts should even be "accelerated". That's how May’s people could sell the half day to their media as a success - until chief trader Barnier soberly pointed out that it always takes two to speed up.
When the Chancellor arrived at the European Council on Thursday, she also said a few friendly sentences. The progress in the negotiations is not yet "sufficient" but "encouraging to continue the work, in order to reach the second phase in December". Merkel and Macron then entered the meeting hall together - May in their midst. The three were in the excited conversation, these were the pictures of the day. One could not see that they did not talk about the Brexit, but about the nuclear deal with Iran.
On the political conclusions of the Brexit negotiations, Mays's last-minute diplomacy did not change anything. They had been voted on among the EU ambassadors a week before the Summit. The Governments and the Barnier team are therefore to undertake "internal preparatory discussions" on future relations with London and a transitional phase. This is a positive response to Mays Florentine's speech. It is explained in negotiating circles that without such a preparation one cannot enter into the second phase anyway. Guidelines have to be drawn up again. The sub-negotiators know that their papers will be discounted, they have already priced that in.They do not talk directly to London, but the British government will know the exact position of their partners.
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